In the eyes of some voters Philippe Mpayimana, a fresh-faced former journalist who is running for president of Rwanda, is just a clown. Otherwise, they ask, why would he be running against longtime President Paul Kagame?
Some of Mpayimana’s campaign venues are nearly empty of people, underscoring a widespread belief among Rwandans that Friday’s election is just another coronation for Kagame, who won 93 percent of the votes in the last election.
In the tidy capital, Kigali, there is little hint of the coming vote.
Presidential candidates are barred from putting campaign posters in most public places, including schools and hospitals. The electoral commission vets candidates’ campaign messages, warning that their social media accounts could be blocked otherwise.
“Some people here even don’t know names of candidates running against Kagame,” said Chris Munyaneza, a university lecturer who lives in Kigali. “People are not bothered.”
“There is no excitement because people knew the winner a long time ago,” said another Kigali resident who insisted on anonymity for his safety.
Kagame has been de facto leader or president of the East African nation of 12 million people since his rebels ended its 1994 genocide. While he remains popular for presiding over impressive economic growth, he inspires fear among some Rwandans who say he uses the powers of the state to remove perceived opponents.
Three potential candidates for Friday’s election were disqualified by the electoral commission for allegedly failing to fulfil certain requirements, including collecting enough signatures. Two others — Mpayimana and Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda — were cleared to run.
The 59-year-old Kagame has already claimed victory, telling a rally in July that the winner of the election is already known: “The day of the presidential elections will just be a formality.” He pointed to a constitutional amendment after a referendum in 2015 that allows him to stay in power until 2034.
Ahead of the polls, tension has been growing following the mass retirement of over 800 army officers — rare before an election — and the reported arrest of at least four senior officers. The arrests include a man related to the late Col. Patrick Karegeya, a former intelligence chief who became a prominent dissident but was found dead in January 2014, apparently strangled, in South Africa.
Karegeya’s widow, who now lives in the United States, said of Kagame: “I think he is a man with an endless hatred, even to those he has put in the grave like my husband.” Leah Karegeya said six family members, including her sister Goretti Kabuto, are in detention in Rwanda because of their ties to her late husband.
Two decades of often deadly attacks on political opponents, journalists and rights activists have created a “climate of fear” ahead of Rwanda’s election, Amnesty International said in a report last month.
“There are many unknown prisons in this country, and many people have vanished and died there,” said one supporter of opposition candidate Habineza, Charlotte Umutesi. “My brother disappeared for a long time and we didn’t find him until much later. We need a change before it is too late.”
Rwandan authorities, including Kagame, deny critics’ claims that the government targets dissidents for assassination or disappearances.
Others insist the president has widespread support. Eric Ndushabandi, a professor of political science at the National University of Rwanda, said many admire Kagame as a “visionary” leader who united a country scarred by the 1994 genocide, in which over 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were massacred by Hutu extremists.
“People are influenced by the traumatic situation of the genocide and conflictual politics in the past and no one is ready to go back,” Ndushabandi said.
Meanwhile opposition rallies often flop, apparently because some people are afraid to be seen associating with the president’s opponents.
In the southeastern town of Nyamata, where independent candidate Mpayimana held his first campaign rally, only about 15 people — most of them children — attended. Police last week arrested the mayor of the western district of Rubavu, Jeremie Sinamenye, over allegations that he and some of his staff prevented voters from attending Mpayimana’s rallies.
The other candidate running against Kagame, Habineza, called his campaign an act of “hope” despite the obvious risks. The organizing secretary of Habineza’s party went missing two years ago and remains unaccounted for. The body of his deputy, Andre Kagwa Rwisereka, was discovered in 2010 with a severed head in the southern town of Butare.
That killing followed the shooting death of newspaper journalist Jean-Leonard Rugambage, whose tabloid had been suspended by Rwandan authorities.
“Running against President Kagame comes with courage,” Habineza said.