The fall of Sudanese president Omar El Bashir has raised a lot of mixed reactions both local and international.
Due to this, questions have been fronted to several opposition leaders especially the Kyadondo East lawmaker and presidential hopeful Hon. Kyagulanyi Robert Ssentamu alias Bobi Wine on what would be next for Uganda if Museveni resigned today.
Several people claim that the opposition is not ready to carryon power therefore insinuating the Zimbabwe presidents where the president was over thrown but still the ruling party remained in power.
However on being exact, Bobi Wine has called upon Ugandans to stay calm and focused, his answered to this is as detailed below.
If Museveni fell today, what would be the next step? The proper thing to do would be to demand for free and fair elections within six months as required by Article 109(2) of the Constitution. If you do not do this, you end up with the revolution being hijacked like has happened in many cases- and as we see presently in Sudan.
But then, how would we participate in those elections within six months if the citizens did not register to vote? Even if we want to set up a transitional government, it should be born out of a democratic process. Those who followed the last election in Zimbabwe understand what we are talking about. Therefore this is the first point.
The second point requires that we reflect on a few past happenings. We should all recall that dictators fall in different ways. The constant is that all of them eventually fall. I am sure that President Museveni, (seeing what has happened to his counterparts who were even stronger, more manipulative and wiser than him), is aware of the catastrophe that awaits him if he does not restrain himself.
Dictators do not fall the same way. What we have learnt in the past is that some fall through popular uprisings before elections (Algeria, Sudan, Burkina Faso, etc), during or after elections (Ivory Coast, Gambia, etc), coups d’etat (Mali, Zimbabwe, etc), foreign intervention (Libya, etc), natural causes (Guinea Bissau, etc) or even through conventional warfare.
A few who are wise enough read the signs and hand over power peacefully (Angola, etc). The sparks are usually different. The means and circumstances are usually different. The aftermath is usually different. The constant is only one- EVERY DICTATOR WILL CERTAINLY FALL.
We have taken time to study what has gone on in the past. We have many times focused on taking Museveni out before the election period. Several campaigns have been made in this regard. I will not list all of them here, but they have only been successful in exposing Museveni and building momentum for his imminent fall.
However, for one reason or another, we have not yet succeeded in the major objective- we shall discuss these reasons another time. (And Museveni should never take our past failures as a source of comfort for himself- every day is not a Sunday!)
When we have not succeeded, we then go for elections. THE SAME LEADERS WHO HAVE DISCOURAGED ELECTIONS DECIDED TO PARTICIPATE IN THOSE ELECTIONS.
The same leaders who have made it clear that Museveni cannot go by the ballot actually nominate as candidates and appear on the ballot! Many in the population which has been told that an election cannot work decide to shun the election process- thus explaining the millions who stay away on election day.
Moreover, we go into these elections when we are not fully prepared for them. We participate in them as a ritual. For the past elections, the forces of change have failed to achieve UNITY which we all agree would do magic. We end up without a clear strategy to protect the votes.
The population is not prepared enough to reject a rigged election- IN ANY CASE ELECTIONS WERE DISCOURAGED IN THE FIRST PLACE. Therefore, this is our point of departure from our friends who are discouraging our campaign to have our citizens register as voters, even as we work with other measures.
I am persuaded beyond doubt that comrade Dr. Kizza Besigye has won at least two elections in the past and was rigged. But I also know that the win was not as decisive as it ought to be if we confronted the despot as a more united and prepared front.
Because of the weaknesses I have highlighted, the citizens have not been able to come out and assert their sovereignty and claim their victory. For example, Dr. Besigye has indicated several times that he won with 52% in the last election according to the tally he put in place. I believe however that if a lot more had been done two or three years prior to the election (to unite the opposition, call upon citizens to register and rally them to vote, etc) the victory would have been much higher and therefore more difficult to tamper with.
For example, in the 2016 election, close to 5 million registered voters stayed away from the polls. Many more adult Ugandans did not even bother to register in the first place. Why? Probably because they have been discouraged by the forces of change from having any confidence in the process.
We must remember that dictators are better dealt with if defeated by a knock-out!
Comrades, we should do everything possible to defend the Constitution and restore constitutional governance in our country. Adding to what we have been doing, we shall intensify our efforts- working with all forces of change.
If we succeed before the next election like Algeria or Sudan have, the better for our country. But let us not lose sight of the constitutional and internationally recognized opportunity that we shall have in 2021. We cannot afford not to prepare for an election and then decide to participate when the population has been turned away from the process.
THE LESSONS OF THE PAST 20 YEARS SHOULD HAVE MADE THIS CLEAR TO US. We can overwhelm Museveni in an election organized by his own Electoral Commission – it happened in Ivory Coast, it happened in the Gambia and many other examples.
Should Museveni manipulate the laws and try to stop or extend the elections or even to prevent us from participating, that will be another conversation and we shall awaken the people of Uganda to do the needful. For now, I call upon all of you to REGISTER and get your National-IDs.
Power to the millions of you who have responded to our call. We are making this case to all comrades in the struggle. We hope to persuade them to see our viewpoint because we believe that we are stronger when all of us are on the same page. A PEOPLE UNITED SHALL NEVER BE DEFEATED.