The Government has launched an ambitious five-year development strategy worth sh593 trillion, aimed at transforming Uganda into a middle-income country by significantly improving the quality of life for its citizens.
Crafted by the National Planning Authority (NPA) and presented to Parliament, this Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) outlines bold steps to achieve sustainable economic growth, macroeconomic stability, and job creation while addressing critical infrastructure and social service deficits.
Economic Transformation Goals
According to Dr. Joseph Muvawala, the Executive Director of NPA, the NDP IV is the first in a series of three five-year plans designed to deliver a tenfold economic growth strategy.
State Minister for Planning, Amos Lugoloobi, highlighted the plan’s ambitious objectives, including doubling the size of the economy every five years and achieving an annual double-digit growth rate of 10.13% by the 2029/30 financial year.
Key economic targets include:
- Job Creation: An annual average of 884,962 jobs.
- Increased GDP per Capita: Rising to $2,942 (sh0.8 million) by 2029/30, solidifying Uganda’s middle-income status.
- Poverty Reduction: Lowering the poverty rate from 20.3% in 2019/20 to 14% by 2029/30.
- Revenue and Stability: Improving the revenue-to-GDP ratio from 13.7% in 2023/24 to 18.3% by 2029/30 while maintaining inflation within a target band of 5-6%.
Driving Growth Through Key Sectors
The strategy focuses on five key growth areas: agro-industry, tourism, minerals and oil, science and technology, and finance.
These sectors are expected to accelerate urbanization, boost exports, and reduce imports. Investments in value addition and industrialization will also be prioritized to drive double-digit growth and support wealth creation initiatives, such as the Parish Development Model and Emyooga programs.
By 2040, the plan aims to increase GDP from $53 billion to $500 billion, accompanied by a six-fold rise in GDP per capita and a threefold increase in annual per capita growth rates.
Achieving this will require doubling household savings, attracting foreign direct investment, and enhancing human and physical capital.
Funding and Contributions
Out of the total sh593 trillion cost, 69.6% (sh413 trillion) will be funded by the public sector, while the private sector is expected to contribute 30.4% (sh180 trillion).
Parliament Highlights Grey Areas
Despite its approval, MPs raised concerns over inconsistencies and outdated data in the draft NDP IV. Faith Nakut Loru, Napak Woman MP, criticized the inclusion of non-existent institutions, duplicate projects, and inaccuracies in the plan.
For example, completed infrastructure projects, such as the Anyara and Kangole bridges, were still listed, inflating the total cost of the plan.
Loru also noted the lack of regional balance and the omission of strategic assets critical to national development.
She recommended a review to align the plan with current government policies on agency rationalization and public expenditure.
Speaker Demands Action
Speaker Anita Among expressed disappointment over the identified issues, urging the NPA to thoroughly revise the plan.
“We need a smart, achievable national development plan that is equitable and consistently evaluated,” she stated, emphasizing the need for regional balance and accurate cost projections.
Looking Ahead
The NDP IV lays the foundation for Uganda’s socio-economic transformation, but addressing its identified gaps is crucial to ensuring its success.
With targeted investments and a commitment to addressing inconsistencies, the strategy has the potential to drive Uganda closer to its vision of middle-income status by 2040.
